Fan Behavior, Team Success, and Stadium Demand: A Behavioral Economics Perspective from the NFL

Yu Pang; Fengchen Wang

doi:https://doi.org/10.37155/2972-4813-gep0303-9

Fan Behavior, Team Success, and Stadium Demand: A Behavioral Economics Perspective from the NFL

Yu Pang （ School of Economy and Management, National Research University Higher School of Economics, St Petersburg 194100, Russia ）

Fengchen Wang （ SmartEdTech Program, Université Côte d'Azur, Nice 06100, France ）

https://doi.org/10.37155/2972-4813-gep0303-9

Abstract

This study investigates how team performance influences stadium attendance in the National Football League, using a 28-year panel dataset comprising 7,221 games from 37 teams. Employing fixed effects regression models, the analysis examines short-, medium-, and long-term performance indicators-including current season win percentage, historical playoff participation, and lifetime win rates-while accounting for stadium, economic, geographic, and match-level variables. The findings reveal that team performance significantly affects attendance, but its impact varies across the season. While early-season success has little effect, performance becomes increasingly predictive of attendance toward the end of the regular season and during the playoffs. Surprisingly, winning the Super Bowl in the previous season is associated with a decline in attendance the following year, suggesting a possible expectation saturation effect. Long-term team success enhances attendance, particularly in the early season. Additionally, outcome uncertainty, new stadiums, geographic proximity, and per capita income positively influence turnout, while rising unemployment is paradoxically linked to higher attendance. These insights carry implications for sports economists and practitioners, particularly in emerging markets. The methodology and behavioral patterns identified here may inform attendance strategies in professional leagues across Central and Eastern Europe, where fan behavior and infrastructure investments increasingly resemble those of mature sports markets.

Keywords

Sports attendance; Fan behavior; Team performance; Econometric modeling

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Publishing time:2025-07-28
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