基于截断式奇数韦布尔分布族的变压器使用寿命预测
顾心田 （ 国网江苏省电力有限公司超高压分公司 ）
https://doi.org/10.37155/2717-5251-0621-73Abstract
电力变压器是整个电力系统中最重要同时也是最昂贵的设备之一。为了有效地规划变压器设备的维护工 作以及相关成本支出，企业必须能够准确地预测变压器的使用寿命。尽管标准威布尔分布模型已经在变压器使用寿命 预测方面得到了广泛应用，但是在面对危险率非单调或恒定的情况时，这个方法无法得到比较精确的结果。并且由于 变压器寿命通常会受到其技术寿命的限制，定义在无限域上的标准分布函数对于模型的拟合会产生偏差。因此本文采 用了奇数韦布尔分布模型（the odd Weibull distribution）并且进行了进一步的截断处理，最终通过最大化似然函数的对 数来进行参数估计，以便更好地解决单一分布模型在上述情境中的不足。实证研究验证了上述所提模型的适用性。
Keywords
寿命预测；奇数韦布尔分布；变压器；截断分布Full Text
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of Physics:Conference Series, 2021, 1992(4).
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Prediction of Transformer Based on Repairing Profit and
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Copyright © 2024 顾心田
Publishing time:2024-11-01
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
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